Using a conservative model, if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate the global average temperature will be 2C over pre-industrial levels by 2070, but if we make the changes suggested here it should be possible for global average temperature to be held at +1.6C by 2050 and be sustained at that level thereafter. There are two limbs to the strategy recommended here. The first is to cut CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. The second is to have in place, by that date, the necessary infrastructure and planning to completely replace all fossil fuels with hydrogen gas created from water. This changeover will begin before 2050 and continue until about 2070, when it should be almost fully complete. This approach will not cause a radical reconstruction of all industrial processes, but can be carried out without ineffectively destroying current infrastructure, requiring the creation of brand new infrastructure. It will not result in the de-industrialisation of the world as some seem willing to contemplate, nor will it offer false hope for cuts that can never be delivered. The alternative approach, called "net-zero by 2050" involves continuing to use fossils fuels well into the future. The "net" part of the equation, to offset CO2 emissions, seems to be provided in this totally unworkable plan by growing lots of trees and other plants, cutting them down, then using the material supplied to create electricity and burying the resultant CO2 underground in "secure storage." It is argued here that world leaders now should look for solutions that use resources that we have in abundance, choosing solutions that help people to preserve their preferred way of life as far as possible and ones that look after the environment at the same time. More so, the leaders of prosperous nations should not chose solutions that will lead to further impoverishment of poor nations, but rather choose solutions that will help the leaders of those nations find the prosperity that the people of those nations truly seek.
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Science and Culture
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Global Warming of 1.5°C
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This essay proposes a way to prevent the Paris Agreement on climate change reached in December 2015 from collapsing. The agreement was historic. Nearly every nation in the world—from North Korea to the United States—pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement, however, contains no consequences if countries do not live up to their commitments. Environmental agreements of this kind are extremely fragile. At the heart of the problem is what is known as the tragedy of the commons—a unique dynamic that sabotages cooperation. In a nutshell, the problem is that no one can trust each other, which produces a destructive race to the bottom. This essay proposes a bold and totally novel solution to short-circuit this effect.
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