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m START m CHAPTER 7 m CONTENTS m CHAPTER 8 m LIST OF FIGURES m CHAPTER 9 m PREFACE m CHAPTER 10 m CHAPTER 1 m CHAPTER 11 m CHAPTER 2 m CHAPTER 12 m CHAPTER 3 m APPENDICES m CHAPTER 4 m GLOSSARY m CHAPTER 5 m INDEX m CHAPTER 6
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With full information. Let's go ^^
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Irrigation and reclamation (I&R) projects in Iraq designed and managed by The General Committee for Irrigation and Reclamation Projects (GCIRP) are facing significant overruns that sometimes lead to major time, cost, and schedule deviations or even contract withdrawal or stoppage. The research aims to develop a Decision support System (DSS) that organizes I&R projects' historical data and knowledge, and processes the stored data to produce different classes of useful information that supports the managing staff in I&R projects planning, contracting, and contingency decision making. The study consists of three main sub-studies; the first is a theoretical study that is intended to set a risk management methodology since there is no common agreement in literature regarding many aspects in this subject. The second is a practical implementation of the proposed risk management methodology to manage project risks in I&R projects in Iraq depending on the available historical data related to these projects. The third sub-study is to develop a proposed DSS using the Throwaway Prototyping methodology with suitable choices and structure which conform with the proposed risk management methodology, depending on the available choices and theory of DSS development that are introduced in the theoretical part of this thesis. The proposed risk management methodology required a fourth substudy to inquiry the attitudes and general tolerances of the beneficiary organization (GCIRP) that are needed to direct the decision making process in risk management which is expressed as risk response decision making. The attitude study showed that senior staff in GCIRP is ready to adopt a new DSS system, and that the preferred risk response towards negative risks is Risk Avoidance/ Mitigating, and towards positive risks is Exploiting Opportunities. Time and cost variation tolerances were 10% each, and quality tolerance was 2%. The preferred decision making style is Consultative decision style by consulting a combined group and then the decision maker will make his decision individually. The risk management methodology and DSS choices were set within the theoretical study. Risk management implementation included risk identification (including risk definitions, causers, probabilities, cause-effect relationships, and multi-criteria classification) and risk qualitative and quantitative analyses. For the qualitative analysis, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to rank risks according to their relative importance using multi-criteria weighting system. Quantitative analysis is performed by developing a risk simulation lab that is developed as a DSS datasheet model that can perform scenario, portfolio, what-if, and sensitivity analyses. The proposed DSS is designed to be a compound (hybrid) DSS (database-oriented, spreadsheet-oriented, and solver-oriented DSS) which consists of three elements: two databases that store historical project data and risk management knowledge, a set of data processing models to achieve outcomes that cannot be extracted directly from the database, and a reporting system to provide decision makers with assorted information which provide informational support for their decisions. The research included proposed actions to ensure data quality management and to organize database and models management and maintenance operations
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